The Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority advises that warm weather and additional rainfall is forecast for the end of this week posing an increased risk of flooding within the low-lying areas historically susceptible to flooding, including the shorelines of Lake Simcoe.
Periods of rain are forecast for tonight and through Friday with 5mm of rain overnight and additional amount of up to 25 mm tomorrow.
Recent rain events have resulted in saturated ground conditions within our watershed limiting soils capacity to absorb additional rain, thus increasing potential for surface runoff. Higher than normal water levels and flows observed in our rivers and streams create potentially hazardous conditions. The combination of slippery and unstable banks and cold water temperature will create hazardous conditions close to any river, stream or other water bodies.
While widespread flooding is not expected, the possibility for flooding in various low lying areas of the watershed exists due to the noted watershed conditions.
Lake Simcoe Water Level
The water level in Lake Simcoe is still higher than the average for this time of year and continues to trend upwards. Levels are expected to rise due to high flows in the system and additional precipitation forecast for tonight and tomorrow.
There is the potential for flooding of low-lying lands adjacent to the lake. The remaining ice on the lake will also pose additional threats to shoreline areas and adjacent structures, particularly if combined with strong winds.
The current forecast indicates for today the south-east winds ranging from 10 km/hr to 15 km/hr and gusts up to 25 km/hr. However, winds are expected to increase up to 35 km/hr and shift overnight to a north-west direction; with gusts ranging from 40 km/hr to 60 km/hr.
As a result, the shorelines, in particular the south-east one; may experience additional impacts due to higher winds with potential higher water levels and ice deposition along the shorelines.
A summary of recent Lake Simcoe water levels can be found below:
Lake Simcoe Water Level
(metres above sea level)
|April 22, 2019||219.10|
|Current Water Level: ||219.13|
Please exercise extreme caution around all bodies of water and stay off all ice covered waterways. Please alert any children under your care of these dangerous conditions and supervise their activities. Please also keep pets away from the risk areas.
Residents in flood prone or low lying areas, historically susceptible to flooding, should take the necessary precautions to protect their property, such as:
- Ensuring sump pump is clear, in good working condition and has a backwater valve on it
- Portable backup generator and/or battery pump
- Ensuring downspouts are clear and the outlet is at least 3 m from the dwelling
- Removing or securing items that might float away as flows increase
- Removing valuable items from basements or lower floors that could be subject to flooding
- Keep emergency phone numbers handy
- Familiarize yourself with your municipality's emergency preparedness plan
This Flood Outlook will be in effect through Tuesday April 30, 2019, or until otherwise updated.