Watershed Conditions Statment - Flood Outlook


Inland Watercourses

The Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority advises that the forecast is calling for a few rounds of rainfall for portions of Southern Ontario over the next couple of days. Precipitation will likely move in later this afternoon or evening and continue off and on into Friday.

Some areas of the watershed may see total rainfall amounts of 25 to 60 mm by late Friday. Some additional rainfall is possible on Saturday as well.  There is also a risk of thunderstorms.  Ground conditions are generally no longer frozen; however they are saturated from recent thaw and rain events and still have a limited ability to absorb this rainfall.  

Forecasted rainfall amounts will result in higher than normal water levels and flows in our rivers and streams, creating potentially hazardous conditions. The combination of slippery and unstable banks and cold water temperature will create hazardous conditions close to any river, stream or other water bodies.  There is also a potential for flooding in low lying areas. 

Lake Simcoe Water Level

The water level in Lake Simcoe is approximately 6 centimetres lower than the normal level for this time of year and but is trending upwards.  Levels are expected to continue to rise due to the warm temperatures and precipitation expected over the next few days.  As a result, there may be flooding of low-lying lands adjacent to the lake.  The remaining ice on the lake will also pose additional threats to shoreline areas and adjacent structures, particularly if combined with strong winds.

A summary of recent Lake Simcoe water levels can be found below: 


Lake Simcoe Water Level

(metres above sea level)

April 14th 218.95
April 15th 218.97
April 16th 218.98
April 17th 218.98

Current Water Level:



Please exercise extreme caution around all bodies of water. Please alert any children under your care of these dangerous conditions and supervise their activities.

This Watershed Conditions Statement will be in effect through Monday April 22, 2019, or until otherwise updated.



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